Palo Alto, California
The California High-Speed Rail Authority is planning the construction and operation of a high-speed rail (HSR) line connecting San Francisco and other areas of Northern California to Los Angeles and other Southern California communities. The City of Palo Alto lies along the San Francisco Peninsula and would have high-speed trains traveling through the City but would not have an HSR station. At present, the HSR plans are exploring multiple vertical alignments, with at-grade, aerial, and sub-grade tracks at different locations. The existing Caltrain commuter rail service connecting San Francisco to Silicon Valley operates on at-grade tracks and has two stations in Palo Alto, and that Caltrain service would be upgraded as part of the HSR project, offering more trains and faster commute times than at present.
The City of Palo Alto retained EPS to evaluate the impacts that the Caltrain improvements and HSR facilities and operations may have on local property values, tax receipts, jobs/housing balance, and school enrollment and funding. EPS reviewed the plans and environmental documentation for the Caltrain and the HSR project to understand factors such as noise, vibrations, air quality, aesthetics, property acquisition, local circulation, and regional commuting times and patterns. EPS then assessed the likely economic impacts of each project and alternative configuration, applying findings from academic and governmental price modeling studies and our own primary research of analogous locations to the specific geographic and economic circumstances of Palo Alto. EPS determined that the Caltrain improvements alone would yield net benefits to the City of Palo Alto, with reduced commute times to and from other Peninsula communities being capitalized into property value premiums. The HSR project would either add to or detract from those Caltrain-related gains, depending on the vertical alignment—those with sub-grade tracks would yield greater benefits by improving upon existing noise, aesthetic, circulation, and air quality issues, while those with more aerial tracks may exacerbate some of those same issues.